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• Posted March 19, 2026

The Math Behind Eczema Flare-Ups May Finally Add Up

Eczema flare-ups can feel random and hard to control, but new research suggests there may be a way to better predict and manage them.

Scientists say something from a complex field of mathematics called nonlinear dynamics could help explain why symptoms suddenly worsen and how much treatment a person may need.

The study — published March 17 in the journal Chaos — looked at atopic dermatitis, more commonly known as eczema, which causes itchy, inflamed skin.

Many chronic diseases, including eczema, don’t follow simple patterns. Symptoms can stay quiet for long periods and then flare up without warning.

Researchers say that’s because the body behaves like a "nonlinear system," in which small changes can lead to bigger, "butterfly effects."

“These applications illustrate a broader principle: Many chronic diseases can be interpreted as nonlinear dynamical systems operating near critical thresholds, where small physiological changes may lead to qualitatively different outcomes,” lead author Yoseb Kang said in a news release. Kang is a researcher at Pusan National University in Korea. 

To better understand eczema, Kang and a research partner at Arizona State University created a model that looked at how the body moves between two different states: Active flare-ups and periods of remission.

They found that treatment works differently depending on which state you're in.

During a flare-up, the amount of medication needed is far more predictable. It increases based on factors such as how easily the skin lets in irritants and how the immune system responds.

But once symptoms improve, things become less predictable.

“In this regime, relatively small physiological changes can significantly increase the maintenance burden,” Kang explained.

In short: Even small changes in the body can make it harder to keep eczema under control.

Researchers said their model could help doctors better customize treatment plans to each patient.

“Instead of only describing disease evolution, we aimed to determine the minimal intervention required to deliberately move the system from a chronic state into remission and then maintain stability,” Kang said.

Doctors could soon use this kind of approach to adjust treatment based on a person’s skin condition and immune response.

“This framework may help explain why some patients require strong early intervention and why maintaining remission can sometimes demand sustained effort even after visible improvement,” Kang added.

More information

The National Eczema Association has more on the condition.

SOURCE: American Institute of Physics, news release, March 17, 2026